Geoengineering as a Last-Resort Climate Strategy with Climate Economist Dr. Gernot Wagner

Path to Zero
Path to Zero
6.16 - Geoengineering as a Last-Resort Climate Strategy with Climate Economist Dr. Gernot Wagner
Loading
/
Gernot Wagner
In this special edition of Path to Zero, host Tucker Perkins sits down with Dr. Gernot Wagner—a prominent climate economist at Columbia Business School. The conversation spans teaching, cutting-edge policy, and controversial climate interventions like solar geoengineering, offering listeners deep insights into the complex journey toward a low-carbon future.
Dr. Wagner is a seasoned expert who has influenced climate debates through his teaching, writing, and research. With previous roles at NYU and Harvard—and as the co-founding executive director of Harvard’s Solar Geoengineering Research Program—Dr. Wagner brings a unique perspective on the intersection of policy, technology, and economics.

Teaching and the Urgency for Policy Innovation
Dr. Wagner describes his role at Columbia Business School as “the policy guy” in an environment where interest in climate solutions is rapidly growing. Despite the business school setting, he emphasizes that the fight against climate change requires a multi-faceted approach:

  • Education and Engagement: His classes, which attract hundreds of MBA students, illustrate the widespread need for understanding climate risks and policy measures.
  • Policy Acceleration: Wagner argues that while technological advancements like solar panels have advanced quickly, the necessary policy shifts to cut emissions have lagged behind. He underscores the need for coordinated action across federal, international, and local levels.

Dr. Wagner’s most recent book, Geoengineering: the Gamble

Exploring Solar Geoengineering: Risks and Realities
One of the most compelling parts of the interview revolves around solar geoengineering—a topic Dr. Wagner is both cautious and passionate about. Key points include:

  • Concept and Mechanism: Solar geoengineering involves reflecting sunlight back into space, similar to the natural cooling effect observed after volcanic eruptions.
  • Not a Silver Bullet: Dr. Wagner stresses that while geoengineering could help stabilize global temperatures, it must not distract from the essential goal of reducing emissions. Instead, it should be viewed as a potential “painkiller” in extreme scenarios.
  • The Gamble of Uncertainty: Emphasizing the “gamble” inherent in geoengineering, he notes that uncertainties and risks remain, which require rigorous research without undermining the need for decisive emissions cuts.

The Green Moral Hazard and Technological Trade-Offs
Dr. Wagner draws a parallel between green technologies and the concept of moral hazard—where technological fixes might encourage complacency:

  • Moral Hazard Explained: Just as safety measures in healthcare or automotive safety can sometimes lead to riskier behavior, relying on technologies like geoengineering or nuclear energy might detract from the more difficult, but essential, process of reducing carbon emissions.
  • Balanced Approach: While acknowledging that technologies like solar panels have become cheaper and more efficient, he cautions against allowing these advances to become an excuse for inaction on fundamental emission reductions.

Carbon Pricing, Tariffs, and the Global Competitive Edge
A significant portion of the discussion is dedicated to trade policies and the economics of climate action:

  • Carbon Tariffs vs. Carbon Pricing: Dr. Wagner discusses the merits of carbon tariffs as a tool for ensuring that imported goods account for their carbon footprint. However, he stresses that the ultimate goal should be a robust carbon pricing mechanism—one that truly internalizes the environmental costs of fossil fuel use.
  • Global Competition: He points out that early investments in green technologies, such as China’s subsidies in solar panel manufacturing, have given them a competitive advantage. For Western economies, this underscores the need for smart, targeted policies that drive both environmental and economic progress.

Photo by Leslye Smith, Columbia Business School, New York, 2022

Public Investment and the Inflation Reduction Act
The conversation also touches on the role of public investment:

  • The IRA’s Dual Impact: Dr. Wagner offers a candid analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). While it aims to transition away from fossil fuels, its full impact involves a mix of public spending and private investment, with estimates of significant financial commitment over the coming decades.
  • Policy and Investment Synergy: He highlights that innovative policy backed by substantial public investment is critical to achieving the deep decarbonization needed in sectors like energy and transportation.