What 2026 Really Holds for Power Prices, Data Centers, and the Energy Transition with Energy Policy and Modeling Expert Robbie Orvis

As Path to Zero begins a new year, Tucker Perkins sits down with Robbie Orvis to look past the noise of recent headlines and focus on what the data says about where energy markets, electricity prices, and the energy transition are headed in 2026.

Robbie Orvis is Senior Director of Modeling and Analysis at Energy Innovation, where he leads quantitative research used by policymakers in the U.S. and around the world. His work focuses on how energy systems actually respond to policy, technology, and market forces, and he has helped develop and deploy energy policy models in more than a dozen countries. Orvis is a frequent media source on energy and climate policy, with his research cited by major national outlets, and he regularly advises decision makers on pathways to reliable, affordable, low-carbon energy systems.

Orvis’ message is nuanced but clear: even as renewables and electric vehicles continue to grow globally, the U.S. is entering a new era of electricity demand driven by data centers, grid upgrades, and rising fuel costs. Affordability becomes the defining issue for households, utilities, and policymakers alike.

What changed in 2025 (and what didn’t)
Orvis notes that globally, solar and wind remain the dominant new sources of electricity generation, and EV adoption continues to surge, especially outside the U.S. Even with policy uncertainty in America, 2025 is still shaping up to be a strong year for renewable deployment, partly due to projects already in the pipeline and developers racing to lock in incentives ahead of changing rules.

Why storage is showing up with so much new solar
A key theme is the rapid shift toward pairing solar with storage. Orvis points out that short-duration batteries—especially four-hour storage—are increasingly bundled with new solar projects because prices have dropped enough that developers can see profits from the combined system. Long-duration storage, however, remains earlier-stage, with 2026 likely to be a proving ground as new technologies move from promise to performance.

EVs: the U.S. is the outlier

Orvis gives a global view of EV adoption and explains why the U.S. is moving more slowly: different consumer preferences (bigger vehicles), less density, and a lack of low-cost Chinese EV options due to tariffs. He frames EV growth as an “S-curve” globally, with many countries progressing quickly—often based on economics and practical charging access—while U.S. automakers face hard decisions under shifting incentives and standards.

The core 2026 story: electricity demand and affordability
Orvis argues that electricity prices are rising for several overlapping reasons:

• Demand growth is accelerating after two decades of flat load (electrification + data centers)
• Capacity is needed not just for annual energy, but for peak hours when the grid is strained
• The cost to build new capacity is increasing as developers and equipment are constrained
• Natural gas prices are expected to rise, and gas often sets market prices
• Utilities are investing billions in grid upgrades to handle new load safely

The result: households are seeing major bill increases, and grid operators are scrambling to secure capacity fast enough to keep up.

So what’s the way out?
Orvis is blunt about what won’t solve near-term affordability: new coal isn’t happening, nuclear is too slow to build in a timeline that matters, and gas turbine supply is constrained globally. His conclusion is that the fastest, most available path to add capacity is the one already in motion—building more wind, solar, and storage—paired with policy and market reforms that make it easier to permit, interconnect, and deliver projects at scale.

He also flags a few near-term “pressure release valves”: potential FERC action to clarify large-load interconnections, the (uncertain) possibility of permitting reform, and early signs that data centers may adopt more flexible operating arrangements when the grid is under strain.

Technologies to watch
Looking beyond the immediate crunch, Orvis highlights three areas worth tracking:

• Hybrid solar (solar + storage) and how effectively it performs in real markets
• Enhanced geothermal as a possible scalable firm power option over time
• Long-duration storage as the potential “game-changer” for seasonal and multi-day grid balancing

To explore more of Orvis’ work, he points listeners to energyinnovation.org and the interactive modeling tools at energypolicy.solutions.