Key Energy Trends to Watch: Data Driven Insights from Strategist Jeff Krimmel
Using Data to See the Future
Jeff explained how he builds models that combine historical and real-time data to forecast trends and test assumptions. These insights help companies make long-term investments despite market volatility.
One example involved forecasting oil prices and rig counts for an oilfield equipment supplier making a multi-year capital decision.
“When you codify assumptions and actually build an apparatus that can model how these markets function and evolve, you really test what you know about these markets and how they should perform.
The Most Compelling Energy Trends Today
When asked which trends matter most, Jeff outlined several themes shaping the energy future:
1. Capital Discipline in Oil & Gas
Shareholders in exploration & production (E&P) companies are demanding higher returns and less risk, discouraging companies from aggressively investing in new production. This conservative approach affects future supply — and creates ripple effects for the entire energy system.
“The hurdle rate required for E&Ps to reinvest is growing because shareholders prefer dividends or buybacks over risky production growth.”
2. Policy Uncertainty and Renewables
Government incentives for solar, wind, and storage — particularly under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — are now being re-evaluated and, in some cases, scaled back in light of Congress passing the “The Big Beautiful Bill.”
Jeff acknowledged that the bill introduces headwinds for some renewable projects but argued that it doesn’t derail the overall trajectory of the low-carbon transition.
“Some projects that were marginally attractive before may no longer move forward — but the low-carbon growth trajectory remains intact. Investor-owned utilities like NextEra still show resilience because, when sited well, renewables can still make economic sense.”
He explained that while some projects at the margins will no longer pencil out without subsidies, the underlying trend toward experimenting with and deploying lower-carbon energy remains strong.
3. Natural Gas as a Bridge
With both renewables and nuclear facing constraints, Jeff expects natural gas to continue playing a crucial role over the next 5–10 years, despite muted price signals and some supply constraints.
“Given the passage of the bill and reduced subsidies, solar and wind will still contribute — but natural gas will likely fill much of the gap for the next decade.”
4. Managing Grid Growth
While data center demand is real, Jeff cautioned against overstating the impact on electricity growth, noting the U.S. has managed similar demand spikes before.
“Even with data center growth, the rates of power demand increase bring us back to the growth we saw before the 21st century. We’ve handled this before.”
The Dynamic Power Grid
Jeff also emphasized the cyclical, wave-like nature of grid development. Over the decades, the U.S. has leaned into different technologies as they’ve become cost-competitive — from coal and nuclear in the 1970s to gas in the 2000s, and now solar and storage. He’s studying whether a “third wave” of natural gas is emerging to meet near-term demand.
“When you look at the data, you see just how dynamic and cyclical the power grid really is. It’s constantly transforming to meet our needs.”
Where to Follow Jeff’s Work
Jeff shares his research and insights through multiple channels:
- Business of Energy — a weekly newsletter with summaries and links
- Foundations of Energy — Substack deep dives into strategy and finance
- Energy Research Brief — his new weekly podcast
- Daily LinkedIn posts sparking discussion across the energy community
“I try to help smart, curious people in energy build their strategy and finance acumen and better understand how these systems are evolving.”